While the comparison is frequently bandied around in the press Afghanistan is looking more and more like Vietnam.
For better or worse Britain is stuck for the foreseeable in a part of the world where few outsiders have had military success. America had more helicopters than you can shake a oily monkey wrench at during their ill fated exploits in South East Asia yet what good did it do them? None, bar the enduring image of that last chopper leaving the roof of a Saigon compound. A war fought on dubious grounds increasingly lacking in popular support against an insurgent force, sound familiar? So what to do? Increase the size of the army James Forsyth argues in the Spectator. The States had over half a million men in a significantly smaller country, again, I ask what good did that do them? To put it into perspective, if the US generals get their anticipated troop reinforcements they will have just shy of 100,000. Britain does not need a bigger army. The men and equipment necessary to operate properly are required but what Britain needs is a coherent exit strategy from a bloody and pointless conflict.
The only way for us to get out of Afghanistan is through a negotiated settlement with the tribes, insurgents and Afghan government. A multi-national force could provide a safe buffer zone to protect as much of the border with Pakistan as they can but that’s it. It is at this point when Britain needs to take a good look at itself in the mirror. We, as much as it pains us to admit it, are not a major world player. We are a small to medium sized country lingering on the outskirts of Europe. We need to forget our colonial past. Yes, we have brought many wonderful things to the world — cricket, golf and rugby to name but three — but we need to grow up. You don’t see Greece, Italy (well not seriously), Tunisia or Belize claiming any divine right to intervene where they are not wanted. We need to start behaving like countries of a similar size — yes, maintain a small, professional, well armed and trained defence force but do we need space aged nukes? Not really. By all means we can join multi-national military ventures but let’s leave the global policing to the big boys.
Totally agree that we are, sadly, a small player no &, implicitly, our involvement is the price of the poker chips to the big boys game. Undeniable. But.
We are where we are. We can negotiate with some players to disengage; ironically because we are small fry the tribes & local government may be OK but the Taliban & US may not. How do we handle that? Of course that may be soluble with political nerve effort. My fear is that the price of exit may be higher than the price of entry.
Vietnam comparisons are attractive, and I hate the waste of Brit Squaddies as much as you. I suggest this as lightly as I can these are perhaps veering to the simplistic. I’d tend to think (perhaps a bit Gung-Ho) that a modern technological Western Army with the kit, the manpower and the political & social will *could* beat the Taliban, notwithstanding history. Unlike investments the past military performance doesn’t necessarily indicate future performance. that said we don’t have any of that: quite rightly too in this case.
So I agree with the sentiment but I don’t see any solution that isn’t embarrassing and I don’t yet think we are in a position to take whatever defeat the Taliban wishes to impose on us. That will take more British lives.
I think the key to this is: ‘with the political and social will’ Both are being lost rapidly. I don’t advocate a withdrawal until we are in a position to negotiate on stronger terms but I do think in the long term it is the only answer. At the height of the Troubles in Northern Ireland we had 22,000 troops in the province. In the end the IRA were infiltrated so thoroughly by our intelligence service they virtually imploded — we still had to negotiate though. In Afghanistan we have no real hope of having the same levels of infiltration. The AQ/Taliban weakness that we did not capitalise on in Afghanistan and Iraq was and is their dependence on tribal loyalties. They are the only viable alternative to fill the power the vacuum.