Comments on: Afghanistan and Beyond — Playing With the Big Boys http://oedipuslex.co.uk/2009/07/afghanistan-and-beyond-playing-with-the-big-boys/ Tue, 07 Sep 2010 13:13:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: oedipus_lex http://oedipuslex.co.uk/2009/07/afghanistan-and-beyond-playing-with-the-big-boys/comment-page-1/#comment-33 oedipus_lex Fri, 31 Jul 2009 22:14:04 +0000 http://oedipuslex.co.uk/?p=109#comment-33 I think the key to this is: 'with the political and social will' Both are being lost rapidly. I don't advocate a withdrawal until we are in a position to negotiate on stronger terms but I do think in the long term it is the only answer. At the height of the Troubles in Northern Ireland we had 22,000 troops in the province. In the end the IRA were infiltrated so thoroughly by our intelligence service they virtually imploded - we still had to negotiate though. In Afghanistan we have no real hope of having the same levels of infiltration. The AQ/Taliban weakness that we did not capitalise on in Afghanistan and Iraq was and is their dependence on tribal loyalties. They are the only viable alternative to fill the power the vacuum. I think the key to this is: ‘with the political and social will’ Both are being lost rapidly. I don’t advocate a withdrawal until we are in a position to negotiate on stronger terms but I do think in the long term it is the only answer. At the height of the Troubles in Northern Ireland we had 22,000 troops in the province. In the end the IRA were infiltrated so thoroughly by our intelligence service they virtually imploded — we still had to negotiate though. In Afghanistan we have no real hope of having the same levels of infiltration. The AQ/Taliban weakness that we did not capitalise on in Afghanistan and Iraq was and is their dependence on tribal loyalties. They are the only viable alternative to fill the power the vacuum.

]]> By: Geeklawyer http://oedipuslex.co.uk/2009/07/afghanistan-and-beyond-playing-with-the-big-boys/comment-page-1/#comment-32 Geeklawyer Fri, 31 Jul 2009 21:55:37 +0000 http://oedipuslex.co.uk/?p=109#comment-32 Totally agree that we are, sadly, a small player no &, implicitly, our involvement is the price of the poker chips to the big boys game. Undeniable. But. We are where we are. We can negotiate with some players to disengage; ironically because we are small fry the tribes & local government may be OK but the Taliban & US may not. How do we handle that? Of course that may be soluble with political nerve effort. My fear is that the price of exit may be higher than the price of entry. Vietnam comparisons are attractive, and I hate the waste of Brit Squaddies as much as you. I suggest this as lightly as I can these are perhaps veering to the simplistic. I'd tend to think (perhaps a bit Gung-Ho) that a modern technological Western Army with the kit, the manpower and the political & social will *could* beat the Taliban, notwithstanding history. Unlike investments the past military performance doesn't necessarily indicate future performance. that said we don't have any of that: quite rightly too in this case. So I agree with the sentiment but I don't see any solution that isn't embarrassing and I don't yet think we are in a position to take whatever defeat the Taliban wishes to impose on us. That will take more British lives. Totally agree that we are, sadly, a small player no &, implicitly, our involvement is the price of the poker chips to the big boys game. Undeniable. But.

We are where we are. We can negotiate with some players to disengage; ironically because we are small fry the tribes & local government may be OK but the Taliban & US may not. How do we handle that? Of course that may be soluble with political nerve effort. My fear is that the price of exit may be higher than the price of entry.

Vietnam comparisons are attractive, and I hate the waste of Brit Squaddies as much as you. I suggest this as lightly as I can these are perhaps veering to the simplistic. I’d tend to think (perhaps a bit Gung-Ho) that a modern technological Western Army with the kit, the manpower and the political & social will *could* beat the Taliban, notwithstanding history. Unlike investments the past military performance doesn’t necessarily indicate future performance. that said we don’t have any of that: quite rightly too in this case.

So I agree with the sentiment but I don’t see any solution that isn’t embarrassing and I don’t yet think we are in a position to take whatever defeat the Taliban wishes to impose on us. That will take more British lives.

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